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چکیده
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Managing archaeological sites requires an understanding of the threats these artifacts face within their temporal and spatial constraints. The historical site of Harireh on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf is one of the sites that played a significant role in maritime exchanges between Iran and remote areas In the 6th to 8th centuries AH. Like many coastal sites, this site has been affected by the consequences of climate change. Understanding and predicting these consequences is crucial for the cultural management of this site. To this end, Landsat images were utilized in conjunction with the DSAS software plugin in a GIS environment to monitor and predict coastal changes along the shoreline of the Old City of Kish between the years 1988 and 2033. Temporal and spatial variations were measured using 123 transects along the shoreline of the Old City of Kish. The research findings indicated that the entire shoreline of the Old City of Kish, particularly the areas exhibiting significant archaeological features, is susceptible to erosion. This erosion is projected to lead to the destruction of a significant portion of the archaeological features between 2033 and 2043. According to the results, currently, 69.84% of the transects are experiencing erosion, a percentage that is likely to reach 91.39% in the next 20 years. Furthermore, erosion estimates for 2033 and 2043 are approximately 22.52 and 30.45 m, respectively.
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