زهرا کریمی موغاری

In this paper we first intend to examine the probability of falling into the realm of child labor by using the conditional probability theorem. Furthermore, we will compare the extent of each factor’s effect on boys and girls using a TOBIT regression model. Finally, we will analyze different aspects of Iran’s labor market to assess the future ahead of the children who are working at the moment. As the results will show, the probability of participating in the labor market conditional on belonging to the age group of 15 to 17 is 20.34 % for boys in comparison with girls that is 4.42 %. More probability scores are estimated in the paper. Moreover, the results from the TOBIT regression show that in general boys are more affected than the girls by the same factors. Also, based on the macro statistics published by Iran’s Statistical Center, the graduation of numerous people from graduate schools combined with the low and slow rate of economic growth makes it quite difficult to find a decent work in the country. As a result, the skilled labor force will be content with accepting low wage jobs which are more suitable for the unskilled workers. Therefore, those who left school earlier in their lives will face several problems in the future.