2024 : 12 : 22

hematollah roradeh

Academic rank: Associate Professor
ORCID:
Education: PhD.
ScopusId:
HIndex:
Faculty: Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
Address:
Phone: 9113256216

Research

Title
Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time
Type
JournalPaper
Keywords
Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal
Year
2024
Journal Journal of the American College of Cardiology
DOI
Researchers Samuel Hundessa Samuel Hundessa ، Wenzhong Huang Wenzhong Huang ، Qi Zhao, Qi Zhao ، Yao Wu Yao Wu ، Bo Wen Bo Wen ، Barrak Alahmad Barrak Alahmad ، hematollah roradeh ، Fatemeh Mayvaneh

Abstract

BACKGROUND The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. METHODS Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature–mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km  55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. RESULTS Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. CONCLUSIONS Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heatrelated cardiovascular deaths amid climate change. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2024;83:2276–2287) © 2024 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation