محمود محمد رضاپور طبری

Identifcation of the uncertain parameters, which afecting on the qualitative behavior of the aquifer, and determining their efect on the uncertainty of the simulated nitrate concentration (NC) is one of the major challenges in the qualitative monitoring of aquifers. In this study, in order to determine the quantitative amount of uncertainty related to the simulated nitrate, an approach based on a hybrid of Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) model and Fuzzy Vertex Method (FVM) method was developed using the developed code for the relationship between aquifer simulation model and MATLAB environment. In this model, hydraulic conductivity, NC in aquifer recharge sources, longitudinal dispersivity coefcient, and specifc storage parameters were considered as uncertain parameters in the distributed simulation model of the Ardabil aquifer. In the proposed approach, frst the quantitative and qualitative (QQ) model of the aquifer was prepared using the GMS model and calibrated. Then, using the FVM method and developed MATALB code, the uncertain values appropriate for each of the aquifer active cells were determined. The results obtained from the monthly NC uncertainty show that with increasing the level of uncertainty, the uncertainty of the simulated NC increases signifcantly. For example, can be mentioned a 14-fold increase in the number of cells with variation of NC less than 10% in the September month. Also, the lowest and highest variation in the deterministic amount of NC is related to the months of Nov. and Sep. with concentration variations equal to [−8.5, 8.35] and [−23.43, 19.8] mg/L, respectively. The fndings of this study show that the application of at least 10% uncertainty in the deterministic values of the simulated NC is necessary to provide a suitable view for quality monitoring of aquifer. A quantitative amount of monthly uncertainty in areas with nitrate concentrations greater than 50 mg/L indicates that the amount of uncertainty in these areas is higher tha